- SWAG合集’s Weisi Guo, Professor of Human Machine Intelligence, contributes to world-leading report set to be discussed at COP28
The world has reached a pivotal moment as threats from Earth system tipping points accelerate, a new report shows.
The Global Tipping Points Report, recognised as the most extensive evaluation of tipping points to date, paints a stark picture of humanity's current trajectory. The swiftness with which fossil fuels are phased out and zero-carbon solutions embraced will shape the future significantly.
SWAG合集’s Weisi Guo, Professor of Human Machine Intelligence, contributed to the report and said the research illuminated the "urgency of our trajectory".
A pivotal moment for humanity
According to the report, the existing global governance framework falls short in addressing the magnitude of the challenge. It puts forward six recommendations for course correction, emphasising the need for coordinated efforts internationally.
Tipping points, defined as instances where small changes trigger rapid and often irreversible transformations, can have both positive and negative consequences. The report, evaluating 26 negative Earth system tipping points, states that maintaining the status quo is no longer tenable. Rapid changes in nature and societies are already underway, with more anticipated.
With global warming projected to surpass the 1.5°C threshold, the report warns of the likely activation of at least five Earth system tipping points. These include the collapse of major ice sheets and widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs, signalling an urgent need for decisive action.
Professor Weisi Guo said: "At this pivotal moment for humanity, the Global Tipping Points Report illuminates the urgency of our trajectory.
"We require extensive modelling on a global scale to grasp the complex relationships between climate change, conflict, and migration. This report contributes by providing a review of the evidence and methods at COP28."
Blueprint for sustainable future
The report says emergency global action – accelerated by leaders meeting now at COP28 – can harness positive tipping points and steer us towards a thriving, sustainable future.
The report lays out a blueprint for doing this, and says bold, coordinated policies could trigger positive tipping points across multiple sectors including energy, transport, and food.
It was produced by an international team of more than 200 researchers, coordinated by the University of Exeter, in partnership with Bezos Earth Fund.
"Tipping points in the Earth system pose threats of a magnitude never faced by humanity," said Professor Tim Lenton, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute.
"They can trigger devastating domino effects, including the loss of whole ecosystems and capacity to grow staple crops, with societal impacts including mass displacement, political instability and financial collapse.
"But tipping points also offer our best hope: we need to prioritise and trigger positive tipping points in our societies and economies.
"This is already happening in areas ranging from renewable energy and electric vehicles to social movements and plant-based diets.
"Now is the moment to unleash a cascade of positive tipping points to ensure a safe, just and sustainable future for humanity."
The report includes six key recommendations:
- Phase out fossil fuels and land-use emissions now, stopping them well before 2050.
- Strengthen adaptation and “loss and damage” governance, recognising inequality between and within nations.
- Include tipping points in the Global Stocktake (the world’s climate “inventory”) and Nationally Determined Contributions (each country’s efforts to tackle climate change)
- Coordinate policy efforts to trigger positive tipping points.
- Convene an urgent global summit on tipping points.
- Deepen knowledge of tipping points. The research team supports calls for an IPCC Special Report on tipping points.
- Parts of the Global Tipping Points Report will be published in a special issue of the journal Earth System Dynamics.
Once published, the report will be publicly available on the .
